Protected Areas are subject to long-term modifications associated with climate and environmental change, enhancing the risk of ecosystem collapse, tipping points and unexpected responses to droughts, fires, floods and other individual events. One of the goals of the EU H2020 Project ECOPOTENTIAL and of the GEO ECO Initiative of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) is to quantify ongoing and expected changes in the drivers and the characteristics of Protected Areas in Europe and beyond, using gridded climatic datasets, in situ meteo-climatic and biological data and Remote Sensing observations. Several statistical approaches are used to this goal, with the aim of determining the patterns and properties of the changes currently affecting Protected Areas. Use of suitably downscaled climate scenarios allows for estimating how such changes are projected into the next decades. Here we report the results on the changes in meteo-climatic drivers and in some remotely-sensed variables for the set of Protected Areas participating in the ECOPOTENTIAL project, focusing on a few specific examples encompassing mountain, arid/semi-arid and coastal ecosystems.

The ECOPOTENTIAL project focuses its activities and pilot actions on a targeted set of internationally recognised protected areas (PA) in Europe, European Territories and beyond, including mountain, arid and semi-arid, and coastal and marine ecosystems. Building on the knowledge gained in individual PAs, the ECOPOTENTIAL project addresses cross-scale ecological interactions and landscape-ecosystem dynamics at regional to continental scales, using geostatistical methods and the emerging novel approaches in Macrosystems Ecology, which is addressing long-term and large-scale ecological challenges. ECOPOTENTIAL addresses the entire chain of ecosystem-related services, by (a) developing ecosystem data services, with special emphasis on Copernicus services; (b) implementing model output services to distribute the results of the modelling activities; and (c) estimating current and future ecosystem services and benefits, combining ecosystem functions (supply) with beneficiaries needs (demand). In ECOPOTENTIAL all data, model results and acquired knowledge are made available on common and open platforms, coherent with the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) data sharing principles and fully interoperable with the GEOSS Common Infrastructure (GCI).