Calcolo stimatore Lasso per processi di Hawkes

In this paper, we provide explicit upper bounds on some distances between the (law of the) output of a random Gaussian neural network and (the law of) a random Gaussian vector. Our main results concern deep random Gaussian neural networks with a rather general activation function. The upper bounds show how the widths of the layers, the activation function, and other architecture parameters affect the Gaussian approximation of the output. Our techniques, relying on Stein's method and integration by parts formulas for the Gaussian law, yield estimates on distances that are indeed integral probability metrics and include the convex distance. This latter metric is defined by testing against indicator functions of measurable convex sets and so allows for accurate estimates of the probability that the output is localized in some region of the space, which is an aspect of a significant interest both from a practitioner's and a theorist's perspective. We illustrated our results by some numerical examples.

We investigate the consistency and the rate of convergence of the adaptive Lasso estimator for the parameters of linear AR(p) time series with a white noise which is a strictly stationary and ergodic martingale difference. Roughly speaking, we prove that (i) If the white noise has a finite second moment, then the adaptive Lasso estimator is almost sure consistent (ii) If the white noise has a finite fourth moment, then the error estimate converges to zero with the same rate as the regularizing parameters of the adaptive Lasso estimator. Such theoretical findings are applied to estimate the parameters of INAR(p) time series and to estimate the fertility function of Hawkes processes. The results are validated by some numerical simulations, which show that the adaptive Lasso estimator allows for a better balancing between bias and variance with respect to the Conditional Least Square estimator and the classical Lasso estimator.

In this talk we provide explicit upper bounds on some distances between the (law of the) output of a random Gaussian neural network and (the law of) a random Gaussian vector. Our main results concern deep random Gaussian neural networks, with a rather general activation function. The upper bounds show how the widths of the layers, the activation function and other architecture parameters affect the Gaussian approximation of the output. Our techniques, relying on Stein's method and integration by parts formulas for the Gaussian law, yield estimates on distances which are indeed integral probability metrics, and include the convex distance. This latter metric is defined by testing against indicator functions of measurable convex sets, and so allows for accurate estimates of the probability that the output is localized in some region of the space. Such estimates have a significant interest both from a practitioner's and a theorist's perspective.

The Dirichlet-Ferguson measure is a random probability measure that has seen widespread use in Bayesian nonparametrics. Our main results can be seen as a first step towards the development of a stochastic analysis of the Dirichlet-Ferguson measure. We define a gradient that acts on functionals of the measure and derive its adjoint. The corresponding integration by parts formula is used to prove a covariance representation formula for square integrable functionals of the Dirichlet-Ferguson measure and to provide a quantitative central limit theorem for the first chaos. Our findings are illustrated by a variety of examples.

We analyze the bootstrap percolation process on the stochastic block model (SBM), a natural extension of the Erd?s-Rényi random graph that incorporates the community structure observed in many real systems. In the SBM, nodes are partitioned into two subsets, which represent different communities, and pairs of nodes are independently connected with a probability that depends on the communities they belong to. Under mild assumptions on the system parameters, we prove the existence of a sharp phase transition for the final number of active nodes and characterize the sub-critical and the super-critical regimes in terms of the number of initially active nodes, which are selected uniformly at random in each community.

The Dirichlet-Ferguson measure is a cornerstone in nonparametric Bayesian statistics and the study of distributional properties of expectations with respect to such measure is an important line of research. In this paper we provide explicit upper bounds for the d2, the d3 and the convex distance between vectors whose components are means of the Dirichlet-Ferguson measure and a Gaussian random vector.

In this paper, we study fluctuations and precise deviations of cumulative INAR time series, both in a non-stationary and in a stationary regime. The theoretical results are based on the recent mod- convergence theory as presented in Féray et al., 2016. We apply our findings to the construction of approximate confidence intervals for model parameters and to quantile calculation in a risk management context.

We derive bounds on the Kolmogorov distance between the dis- tribution of a random functional of a {0, 1}-valued random sequence and the normal distribution. Our approach, which relies on the general framework of stochastic analysis for discrete-time normal martingales, extends existing results obtained for independent Bernoulli (or Rademacher) sequences. In particular, we obtain Kolmogorov distance bounds for the sum of normalized random sequences without any independence assumption.

Poisson shot noise processes are natural generalizations of compound Poisson processes that have been widely applied in insurance, neuroscience, seismology, computer science and epidemiology. In this paper we study sharp deviations, fluctuations and the stable probability approximation of Poisson shot noise processes. Our achievements extend, improve and complement existing results in the literature. We apply the theoretical results to Poisson cluster point processes, including generalized linear Hawkes processes, and risk processes with delayed claims. Many examples are discussed in detail.

We study the consistency and the oracle properties of the adaptive Lasso estimator for the coefficients of a linear AR(p) time series with a strictly stationary white noise (not necessarily described by i.i.d. r.v.'s). We apply the results to INAR(p) time series and to the non-parametric inference of the fertility function of a Hawkes point process. We present some numerical simulations to emphasize the advantages of the proposed procedure with respect to more classical ones and finally we apply it to a set of epidemiological data

Motivated by the recent outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19), we propose a stochastic model of epidemic temporal growth and mitigation based on a time-modulated Hawkes process. The model is sufficiently rich to incorporate specific characteristics of the novel coronavirus, to capture the impact of undetected, asymptomatic and super-diffusive individuals, and especially to take into account time-varying counter-measures and detection efforts. Yet, it is simple enough to allow scalable and efficient computation of the temporal evolution of the epidemic, and exploration of what-if scenarios. Compared to traditional compartmental models, our approach allows a more faithful description of virus specific features, such as distributions for the time spent in stages, which is crucial when the time-scale of control (e.g., mobility restrictions) is comparable to the lifetime of a single infection. We apply the model to the first and second wave of COVID-19 in Italy, shedding light onto several effects related to mobility restrictions introduced by the government, and to the effectiveness of contact tracing and mass testing performed by the national health service.

Let P and (P) over tilde be the laws of two discrete-time stochastic processes defined on the sequence space S-N,where S is a finite set of points. In this paper we derive a bound on the total variation distance d(TV)(P, (P) over tilde) in terms of the cylindrical projections of P and (P) over tilde. We apply the result to Markov chains with finite state space and random walks on Z with not necessarily independent increments, and we consider several examples. Our approach relies on the general framework of stochastic analysis for discrete-time obtuse random walks and the proof of our main result makes use of the predictable representation of multidimensional normal martingales. Along the way, we obtain a sufficient condition for the absolute continuity of (P) over tilde with respect to P which is of interest in its own right.

We prove an almost sure central limit theorem on the Poisson space, which is perfectly tailored for stabilizing functionals arising in stochastic geometry. As a consequence, we provide almost sure central limit theorems for (i) the total edge length of the k-nearest neighbors random graph. (ii) the clique count in random geometric graphs. and (iii) the volume of the set approximation via the Poisson-Voronoi tessellation.

We provide concentration inequalities for solutions to stochastic differential equations of pure not-necessarily Poissonian jumps. Our proofs are based on transportation cost inequalities for square integrable functionals of point processes with stochastic intensity and elements of stochastic calculus with respect to semi-martingales. We apply the general results to solutions of stochastic differential equations driven by renewal and non-linear Hawkes point processes. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

We consider the Erdös-Rényi random graph G(n,p) and we analyze the simple irreversible epidemic process on the graph, known in the literature as bootstrap percolation. We give a quantitative version of some results by Janson et al. (2012), providing a fine asymptotic analysis of the final size A_n of active nodes, under a suitable super-critical regime. More specifically, we establish large deviation principles for the sequence of random variables n-A_n/f (n) with explicit rate functions and allowing the scaling function f to vary in the widest possible range.

In recent years, a number of functional inequalities have been derived for Poisson random measures, with a wide range of applications. In this paper, we prove that such inequalities can be extended to the setting of marked temporal point processes, under mild assumptions on their Papangelou conditional intensity. First, we derive a Poincare inequality. Second, we prove two transportation cost inequalities. The first one refers to functionals of marked point processes with a Papangelou conditional intensity and is new even in the setting of Poisson random measures. The second one refers to the law of marked temporal point processes with a Papangelou conditional intensity, and extends a related inequality which is known to hold on a general Poisson space. Finally, we provide a variational representation of the Laplace transform of functionals of marked point processes with a Papangelou conditional intensity. The proofs make use of an extension of the Clark-Ocone formula to marked temporal point processes. Our results are shown to apply to classes of renewal, nonlinear Hawkes and Cox point processes.

We give a general inequality for the total variation distance between a Poisson distributed random variable and a first order stochastic integral with respect to a point process with stochastic intensity, constructed by embedding in a bivariate Poisson process. We apply this general inequality to first order stochastic integrals with respect to a class of nonlinear Hawkes processes, which is of interest in queueing theory, providing explicit bounds for the Poisson approximation, a quantitative Poisson limit theorem, confidence intervals and asymptotic estimates of the moments.

We give general bounds in the Gaussian and Poisson approximations of innovations (or Skorohod integrals) defined on the space of point processes with Papangelou conditional intensity. We apply the general results to Gibbs point processes with pair potential and determinantal point processes. In particular, we provide explicit error bounds and quantitative limit theorems for stationary, inhibitory and finite range Gibbs point processes with pair potential and beta-Ginibre point processes.

In this paper we analyze least recently used (LRU) caches operating under the shot noise requests model (SNM). The SNM was recently proposed in [S. Traverso et al., ACM Comput. Comm. Rev., 43 (2013), pp. 5-12] to better capture the main characteristics of today's video on demand traffic. We investigate the validity of Che's approximation [H. Che, Y. Tung, and Z. Wang, IEEE J. Selected Areas Commun., 20 (2002), pp. 1305-1314] through an asymptotic analysis of the cache eviction time. In particular, we provide a law of large numbers, a large deviation principle, and a central limit theorem for the cache eviction time, as the cache size grows large. Finally, we derive upper and lower bounds for the "hit" probability in tandem networks of caches under Che's approximation.