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2015 Articolo in rivista restricted access

Extinction dynamics of a discrete population in an oasis

Understanding the conditions ensuring the persistence of a population is an issue of primary importance in population biology. The first theoretical approach to the problem dates back to the 1950s with the Kierstead, Slobodkin, and Skellam (KiSS) model, namely a continuous reaction-diffusion equation for a population growing on a patch of finite size L surrounded by a deadly environment with infinite mortality, i.e., an oasis in a desert. The main outcome of the model is that only patches above a critical size allow for population persistence. Here we introduce an individual-based analog of the KiSS model to investigate the effects of discreteness and demographic stochasticity. In particular, we study the average time to extinction both above and below the critical patch size of the continuous model and investigate the quasistationary distribution of the number of individuals for patch sizes above the critical threshold.

Linear equations Quasi-stationary distribution
2012 Articolo in rivista restricted access

Invasions in heterogeneous habitats in the presence of advection

We investigate invasions from a biological reservoir to an initially empty, heterogeneous habitat in the presence of advection. The habitat consists of a periodic alternation of favorable and unfavorable patches. In the latter the population dies at fixed rate. In the former it grows either with the logistic or with an Allee effect type dynamics, where the population has to overcome a threshold to glow. We study the conditions for successful invasions and the speed of the invasion process, which is numerically and analytically investigated in several limits. Generically advection enhances the downstream invasion speed but decreases the population size of the invading species, and can even inhibit the invasion process. Remarkably, however, the rate of population increase, which quantifies the invasion efficiency, is maximized by an optimal advection velocity. In models with Allee effect, differently from the logistic case, above a critical unfavorable patch size the population localizes in a favorable patch, being unable to invade the habitat. However, we show that advection, when intense enough, may activate the invasion process.

Biological invasions Abiotic heterogeneity Advection-reaction-diffusion processes Allee-effect